South Sudan, a nation heavily dependent on oil revenues—over 90% of its government income—faces a looming economic crisis due to escalating tensions in neighboring Sudan. South Sudan lacks its own pipeline infrastructure and relies entirely on Sudan for exporting its oil through Port Sudan, a strategic Red Sea port that is now under threat due to Sudan’s internal conflict.

On May 9, Sudan’s army-backed government announced plans to potentially shut down the oil export facilities used by South Sudan. This decision followed six consecutive days of suicide drone attacks launched by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on Port Sudan. These strikes destroyed key infrastructure, including a fuel depot and electricity grids, disrupting operations in a city that had previously felt safe due to its distance from the front lines. The Sudanese army has cited these attacks as reasons for its inability to continue managing oil exports, directly impacting South Sudan’s economy.

Port Sudan serves as the wartime capital for Sudan’s military, and the recent drone attacks have marked a significant escalation in the country’s civil war. The army’s announcement appears to be a strategic move to pressure South Sudan to intervene or influence RSF to halt its assaults. However, analysts argue that South Sudan has minimal influence over RSF operations and cannot realistically prevent the attacks.

Alan Boswell, a Horn of Africa expert with the International Crisis Group, described Sudan’s warning as a “desperate plea” for South Sudan’s help. He pointed out that while the request may appear logical from Sudan’s perspective, it likely overestimates South Sudan’s ability to exert pressure on the RSF.

The situation is further complicated by the intertwined economic relationship between the two countries. Since gaining independence from Sudan in 2011, South Sudan has continued to export its oil through Sudanese pipelines and infrastructure. As per a 2005 peace agreement that ended the 22-year north-south civil war, South Sudan has been paying Sudan transit and processing fees for oil exportation. This arrangement has remained one of the few cooperative ties between the two nations post-secession.

Experts warn that if Sudan follows through with shutting down oil export facilities, it could push South Sudan into economic collapse. Such a move would also increase the risk of South Sudan becoming more directly involved in Sudan’s brutal and prolonged civil war. Given the country’s already fragile political and economic state, this development could have severe humanitarian and geopolitical consequences for the region.

In summary, the intensifying conflict in Sudan, particularly the RSF’s attacks on Port Sudan, has placed South Sudan’s oil-dependent economy in jeopardy. The Sudanese army’s threat to halt oil exports serves as both a tactical maneuver in its internal war and a signal of the broader regional instability. While Sudan seeks assistance or influence from its southern neighbor, the reality is that South Sudan’s capacity to affect RSF actions is extremely limited. Without immediate resolution, both countries face heightened economic and political turmoil.